I have a "most likely" range of 50 down and 160 up points over 4 weeks, a less likely range of 90 down and 160 up, and least likely range of 150 down and 160 up. This compares to a year range of 650 up and 150 down. So the biggest down threat is near term and due to war uncertainties. If I get a signal to cut back, I will probably not go short