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obiterdictum

05/09/13 12:30 PM

#28364 RE: HappyAlways #28118

When it is understood that the GSEs are GSE's in a conservatorship, then it can be understood that such manipulations such as A are not likely to be used.

The GSE are already public and the value of shares is being determined by the market. Common and preferred stocks are publicly and freely traded. The issue of concern for institutional and other long term investors like those who used to own 95% of the shares, is the conservatorship status of the GSEs where profit is strictly controlled and swept by the US Treasury and the uncertain future of the GSEs corporate form, structure, organization and functioning.

This makes the stock, both common and preferred speculative and not a dependable, profit making investment giving returns and value to investors over the long term who do not need or want to watch what is happening to stocks in their mutual funds. A Canadian friend makes variably $8,000 per day via a moderately aggressive Canadian mutual fund on 860k. He also can lose that amount in a day or more. But it comes back given the structure of the portfolio's stock holdings. That is what long term investors want. Conservative and moderately aggressive funds avoid as much as possible speculative, high risk stocks...The GSEs common shares used to be a workhorse in hundreds of less than agressive stock portfolios. At the moment, it is not that.

That is why the stock can be manipulated as is being done and limited in the rise of pps. Few are holding long and walking away to do other things as their fund increases. There are periodic trading frenzies spurred on MMs or by news events that allows a pay day for day and swing traders looking for volume and volatility and then the expected profit taking followed by a gradual channeling and consolidation into a penny price range and then into fractions of cents ranges. Then, when the volume and trading frenzy decreases, day traders move on to the next sure bet paying trade feast and the MMs are compelled to do the required aspect of their job of making market with a small or negligible stream of order flow.

The current situation of the GSEs under the FHFA prevents such long term investors (pension funds, mutual funds for retirement accounts, etc,) from buying in, holding the stock and thereby tightening supply, increasing demand and thereby literally forcing a market rise in pps that is sustained and at a level far above the current pps. The few cents change seems great after waiting and waiting for the rise but it is candy prices compared to what it would be if free and clear of the conservatorship and all uncertainity dissipated about their future and corporate status outside of the conservatorship.

Now, many are using the GSEs or planning to do so: Day and short term traders, legislators, the White House, the US Treasury, all who can gain a dollar and power from them.

That is not the environment that fosters long term investment and significant pps that grows and is sustained over the long term. Penny changes are insignificant compared to what the pps could be if the GSEs were no longer in conservatorship and performing well as they do now.

Again, it is wait and see.