Replies to post #18305 on Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARNA)

[DarkPools]

I think Q revs r up 100%


Not shabby


Sales are going up

[centurycom]

Three point about VVUS

1) Considering the lable says to avoid
immediate withdrawl from taking Qysima
technically the FDA had no choice but to
make it readily available thru brick
and mortar pharmacies. If a patient ran
out of the medication and it took a week
to replace using mail order service I don't
believe that would have worked out too well.
So, I don't believe this is an indication of
the FDA having anymore faith in the drug. They
can spin this anyway they want.

2) They act like it was their decision not to
use a major distributor for sales when in fact
it was probably the other way around. I don't
believe they will get any upfront major payments
like Arena got. For one, a lot of the cost associated
with bringing it to market are behind them. Who
would have laid out alot of money for a genaric?
They put their patents up as collateral for their
recent loan whoever they get will be just as interested
in dealing with that company as VVUS.I don't believe VVUS
is dealing from strength in this situation. I think this
is all fluff and bluff. It might on the surface seem
like a good deal but who is going to end up with those
patents is where the risks lay. Investors should keep an eye
on who is selling while they are attracting new investors
with the scheming.

3)The major longs in VVUS are probably the same ones shorting
Arena (just guessing) and if the value of that stock
goes down then the collateral to keep those short positions
does also. It would seem to me that they really have no choice
but to play this to the end and try to discourage Arena longs
along the way. This truly seems to be a do or die situation
for them and I really believe they thought their tactics
would have worked much better to date. Let the games continue, first to blink loses. AJMO.

[jdolby32]

Bidwackie - notice he just said discussions about how to sell more product. No one will merge with them and distribute for them with the REMS. Doctors will not Rx this product because they can get generics for their patients cheaper. What a concept . . . you take two products already in generic form (available to the public) and combine them to get an FDA approval. And one of the products is banned in the EU. Really . . . how stupid does this make the FDA look? They only saved face by issuing a REMS designation. I don't have any evidence of course, but I still feel there are some very important people in high places caught up in the short hedge funds as clients. I believe favors were ask of the DEA to prolong the classification as well as not wave Eisai's 30 day request. However, time ran out as pressure was building on the DEA to 'explain' their prolonged response, so now it comes down to a 30 day scramble for the boys caught short on ARNA and long in VVUS to figure a way out. Biggest problem is that there are major long funds locked into ARNA (50% of OS) as well as a major contingent of super longs who bought in pre-$3 range who will not be scared out of their shares. So this becomes a conundrum as it's almost impossible to frighten either of these groups into selling. It is also costing them steep interest rates to control their short positions.

I truly believe the x-factor in Belviq's success will be the T2D application. The longer the EU postures with their non-clinical BS the more Belviq will become a major black market product. JMO