Looks like a Billion in 9 months is a stretch but not out of the question..
This morning IMS reported scripts data for Biogen's Tecfidera. So far 1998 prescriptions have been generated in less than 4 weeks of launch. According to analyst Robyn Karnauskas of Deutsche Bank, scripts data suggests Tecfidera could beat 2013 estimates by $400 million.
"Per IMS, so far 1998 patients have started on Tecfidera. Our calculations based on IMS Nrx indicate a strong beat for Tecfidera for both Q2’13 and FY2013," said Karnauskas. "If we assume no growth in Nrx (new prescriptions) and assume only 928 new pts coming on Tecfidera every week (similar to week ending 26-Apr), we calculate 2Q'13 sales at $64M. Factset consensus is projecting 2Q'13 sales at $48M. We note that these calculations do not take into account any inventory build at wholesaler end which could further increase Q2’13 sales during launch phase."
"Similarly, even with no growth in NRX from current 928 per week, we see 2013E US sales at $651M vs. $248M consensus. If we assume NRX stabilizing around 1000, we see 2013E US sales at ~$690M. . If we assume NRX stabilizing around 1500, we calculate 2013 US sales at ~$950M," added the analyst.
(Note) Canada has now approved BG-12
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