Zeev, I'm not so sure about these improving fundies.(g)
By the look of things the zero financing offers of the automobile industry have lost their impetus, they already sucked all even just remotely willing buyers in.
Unemployment claims have been hovering above 400.000 for five weeks running. They are higher as during spring 2001 when the last recession started.
Housing starts and sales have retreated (even though there was another refinancing wave during the last 4 weeks).
New orders in the Business Outlook Survey of the PhiliFed were down in March, for the first time since December 2001. In that very same survey a number of other measures deteriorated during the last few months. Respondents did indicate though, that they expect a markedly better business environment in the second half (surprise, ggg). But they expected that during the last 3 years as well.
The ECRI leading indicators have deteriorated as well lately.
Overall, IMVHO, there is little evidence that could brush the double-dip scenario easily aside at the moment. The reasoning of the market is of course another one. They say that the worsening situation is war related and once the outcome is clear the economic situation will improve. I say yes and no.
IMHO some of the deterioration is indeed war related and most likely there will be some improvement post war. But I doubt that the improvement will live up to current expectations.
The impact on the market could thus be such, that - once a US victory becomes visible - they will likely play the economic rebound scenario for a while which could lead to a short term counter-rally in the context of your nassacre.
As I believe within 4 to 6 months the economy will be weaker than people currently think the realization of that could trigger the final leg of your market scenario and lead to these new lows into summer.
Any comments?
Culmus
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
