Replies to post #2606 on ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF (UVXY)

[stingray113]

Good job eric. I'm glad that trade worked out so well for you.

Please understand no one here means to be "on your back" about your chosen strategy for trading, we just want you to be successful in your trading (or at least informed).

I think an XIV entrance here is a safe move, as long as you don't mind holding it long for a while through a few bumps.

Since this is the beginning of a roll cycle we got to "reset" the contango - otherwise today would have pushed us likely into backwardation.

Look for the VIX in low-14s soon, pulling down futures to around $15.2-15.5. That will give you around 3-5% on your XIV trade, so I'd look for an exit around $21.75-$22.

Good luck to you.

[eric4x]

It looks like 'Backwardation to the Future!'*

I guess I got stuck being a "bagholder" with XIV. Here is an article written by Jay Wolberg, dated April 17th:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1347481-the-xiv-when-a-sure-thing-goes-bad?source=yahoo

He says, "I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in XIV over the next 72 hours." A SHORT POSITION IN XIV!*

"Today we saw a shift in the flattening of the term structure which should signal a very loud caution."*

"Exiting long XIV positions when the term structure flattens, before a move to backwardation, can help you avoid these losses."*

I have a sell limit set for $22, but I can't sell ALL of it until my 2nd settlement date on Monday. After I sell this, then maybe I should go back into UVXY. I've been sticking with UVXY for all this time. Maybe I should give it another chance. As they say, "Dance with the girl you brought."*

[eric4x]

SOLD XIV at $22 LIMIT, buy UVXY soon?*

I wasn't able to follow the market today, so I'm posting late. I just got my settlement date today from the previous trade. I was able to set the limit order early this morning, to sell all XIV for $22. This is the high end of the price range that was recommended to me, and it just barely reached. The order was filled at 2:40:19 PM.*

Of course, it might still go up in the next few days, but I need time to get my settlement date before buying UVXY.*

Everyone is expecting a big market drop soon. I assume I won't get too much objection if I start averaging down on UVXY at about $7. But I'll have to wait for the settlement date. I would like to set a buy limit for something like $6, just in case it could be filled before the settlement date. But after that date, I'll think it's appropriate to pay a higher price.*

In any case, I got out of the past few trades with a profit. At least in hindsight, it was NOT wrong to start averaging down from $7.30, when I did that two weeks ago. Lower would have been better, but it did go up quite a bit from there.*