Replies to post #8527 on PositiveID Corporation (fka PSID)

[steltz02]

Thanks for all you are adding here Kappak. Great information and convos from all PSID folks tonight.

2013-2014- money would be 89 million split between whoever gets awarded the Phase II Stage 1 contract (http://investors.positiveidcorp.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=709119).

Do we know anything about how the money gets split between Boeing and PSID, other than the revs that PSID is claiming biowatch would be generated from reagents alone? Do we know for sure that Boeing does the maintenance, or do they just crank out the boxes?

Those attacking PSID for "giving" Boeing the manufacturing are short sighted and not considering all possibilities. Maybe PSID didn't have the facilities to produce the number of units needed. Maybe PSID knew they couldn't get the contract without Boeing. Maybe PSID sees Biowatch as only the first step, and once the US government is using these devices to protect their citizens, other countries will follow in short order (all PSID revenue).

There are plenty of options that don't end with, "Fire Caragol! He's an idiot."

The easy check trials are done THIS MONTH (http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01530347). IF the results come back with accuracy within accepted tolerance, the revenues would be staggering and would quickly become a reality.

There are no other devices on the market that can accurately check glucose without taking blood. I found discussion on a few others, but none I can find are in clinical trials.

The penny stock could/should become an absolute monster. This penny stock REALLY isn't like the others.

[kappak]

I never heard if this passed the senate, but it looks like $85M was approved for Biowatch for '13. Not sure how that is split between the existing phase that runs through the end of June, or the companies involved vs funding of city government involvement.

Is there a piece I am missing?

http://govwin.com/jslye_blog/house-fy-13-continuing-resolution/843564

[somoneysportspicks]

The 120-90 million in revenue is when all 2500 units are deployed. They said that may take up to 5 years. let's say they get the median of revenue expected, 105 million with 2500 units deployed that's $42,000 in revenue per unit . If the units are deployed equally over 5 years that's 500 units per years. In

year 1 you would have 500 units X $42,000 = 21 million in revenue.
Year 2, 1000 units X 42,000 = 42 million revenue
Year 3, 1500 units x 42,000 = 63 million
year 4, 2000 units x 42000 = 84 million
year 5, 2500 units x 42000 = 105 million revenue

With 362,060,000 shares outstanding you get revenue per share at.

year 1, 21 million / 362,060,000 = .058, 5.8 cents revenue per share
year 2, 42 mil / 362,060,000 = .116
year 3, 63 mil/ 362,060,000 = .174
year 4, 84 mil/ 362,060,000 = .232
year 5, 105 mil/362,060,000 =.29

Then they said that there margin would be 20% at 20% margin you would have profits per share of

year 1, 21mil rev x 20% = 4.2 mil/362,060,000 shares outstanding = .012, 1.2 cents of profits in year 1
year 2, 42 mil x 20% = 8.4 mil/362,060,000 = .023
year 3, 63 mil x 20% = 12.6 mil/362,060,000 = .035
year 4, 84 mil x20% = 16.8 mil/362,060,000 = .046
year 5, 105 mil x 20% = 21 mil/362,060,000 = .058, 5.8 cents of
recurring revenue for the foreseeable future.

With these earnings per share at a P/E of 20
year 1, .012x20= .24 per share
year 2, .023x20= .46 per share
year 3, .035x20= .70 per share
year 4, .046x20= .92 per share
year 5, .058x20= 1.16per share

With these earnings per share at a P/E of 50
year 1, .012x50= .60 per share
year 2, .023x50= 1.15 per share
year 3, .035x50= 1.75 per share
year 4, .046x50= 2.30 per share
year 5, .058x50= 2.90 per share

You can now see why the reverse split may be an attractive option. With a RS of 1-10 you could be back in the NASDAQ in year one at 50 PE ($6 per share) if projections are correct and after year 2 with a 20 PE ($4.60 per share)

All above are just my opinion.