Replies to post #118801 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[EYEBUYSTOX]

I wouldn't call that cautious...I'd call it smart. I've limited my exposure by selling shares and transferring funds into July call options. Even when PPHM reached stat. sig. doubling of OS in 2nd line, the stock only went up 50% and those who knew what it meant and acted quickly were able to buy shares at a modest premium to the prior day's closing price. With such a small trial that is very unlikely in front line.

So, in a positive scenario lets say front line improves OS by 50%. I'd imagine the stock would open up about 50% or at around $2/share. Lots of room up from there for the next, safer Avastin. If there's only a modest improvement (say 20%) which I think will be the case there will probably be a negative effect on the PPS and the "placebo clowns" will be at it again with their lack of p-value, etc. etc. arguments.

[DewDiligence]

Masterlongevity in a subsequent post said something to the effect, when asked about Garnick, that Garnick wasn't involved in the nitty-gritty of running trials at Genentech. It would take me too long to go back and find the post.

Here it is (from Aug 2012): #msg-78862140.

[Protector]

Thruly,

Specifically, the question becomes, does one wait to find out the new data before investing or jump in later on good data?

I'm now leaning towards the latter. Call me cautious.

It is not the first time you struggle with such dilemma. If you are a trader you definitely wait for the good data and ride the stock.

If you are an investor that believes in Bavi you jump in know, believing you are in before the masses get in. The investor has a higher risk, because his assessment may be wrong but he has an outlook on a bigger reward if he was correct.

The trader reduced his factual risk (he cannot be wrong because the data is disclosed when he starts trading) but his reward will be smaller. He has some risk and that is that the market anticipated and makes a move down while he expected a move up.