bodreaux: Let's talk about that, the EPS, because you're right, that's what it's all about.
Two favorite stocks to compare GZFX to are NFLX and SIRI, for two reasons...NFLX is most comparable to us in terms of offering and SIRI because like GZFX, is "2nd on the block" in terms of a publicly traded company in a business based on subscribership (in their case, vs. XMSR) and their O/S is about the same as GZFX (more in fact).
Given that, the EPS of these other two companies can provide some guidance (9 months for this year so far)...
SIRI EPS = (.42)/share (OUCH!)
NFLX EPS = .06/share
SIRI P/E = $7.13/(.42) = -16.98 (or N/A!)
NFLX P/E = $29.25/.06 = 487.5 (well over double ttm (on Yahoo!)
So, let's go w/ your proposed future EPS of .10/share ("near term" 12-18 months) for GZFX and based on the above P/E comparison, let's go w/ instead of 5-10 like you suggested but rather a P/E of 100, then what do we have...
yup, $10/share. (please correct me if I'm wrong)
GULP!
I say in 18 months this puppy CAN run wild and we may find ourselves sittin' pretty on the NAZ! ;)
Thing is, if this thing picks up steam and they continue to deliver a good service w/ offering more than the competition at a lower subscription rate/month, this will only make our estimated subscription #'s shown to be WAY conservative 12-18 months out. This has the possiblility of adding exponential #'s of subscribers per month as the next year unfolds w/ CC leading the way. A total win/win situation and one that's EASY MONEY for CC so of course they'll push it! :)
All of course, JMHO!
lns
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