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Paul A

03/22/03 11:12 AM

#90210 RE: Zeev Hed #90208

heh- well heck.. I certainly would think it has already taken this into consideration, but of course I also thought the exubberance earlier in the week was pricing in an easy victory in Iraq and yet as of close on Friday the markups continued.

I suppose thats the difficult part here.. trying to determine what the market is thinking and why.. is it justified? or just an overshoot/headfake. As a position trader, Im afforded a bit more flexability to play the under/overshoots- but the piper still has to be paid if Im wrong.

Unfortunately we wont really know if this move is justified until after the fact.. My favorite indicator hit an all time high this week and that is the optomism out there.. Everyone is on cloud nine about a recovery after the war, and that Zeev is the only thing that has me trying to stay in front of this freight train.. I think by Tues/Wed of next week Ill know if that was a foolish mistake or not..

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south louisiana

03/22/03 6:20 PM

#90245 RE: Zeev Hed #90208

Zeev - Disturbing anecdote today - I ran into a box plant manager I had played golf with previously. He seemed distracted, and when asked why, said his company for the first time was shutting down a plant [in Mississippi]. Paperboard box mfgs. usually lead any recovery. Not a good sign.
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Koikaze

03/22/03 9:36 PM

#90262 RE: Zeev Hed #90208

For those interested, I've added some material to the Zeev's Ideas Board (#board-1351). If you are trying to trade for profit (and can admit that you're still learning), don't miss CLASSIC!!!

Fred