Michael- its funny you mention WEL because I have been watching that trading as well and drew that same conclusion..
Part of the reason I followed it was because it burned me.. I went long a ton of shares at some 25-30 cents, and when they announced the chapter 11 possibility I did the smart thing and bailed.. How sick it made me to see it trading in the mid 2s a few weeks later..
.. but like you said- it was interesting how the minute they had a cofnirmed well on fire the stock started to freefall.
I think that the reason that WEL dropped off a cliff was that fact that very few of the oil wells were set on fire. For WEL to have benefitted in a large way, there would have to be many fires to put out. The figures I have heard for the southern oil fields were 10-15 rigs out of 1000. Not much business for WEL there. Sometimes you have to dig further than the headline. Oil wells on fire...is alot different than 1% of the wells on fire. Rob