Replies to post #6029 on MDA - Market Direction Analysis (MDA)

[LG]

augieboo: Well, I fired up my primary trading computer to see
if Bill Gates would let me use it for a little while before the
latest critical updates crashed it again. I was in luck, it
allowed me to upload two charts before it lock up the computer.

By the way nice chart and watching those oscillating ranges is
certainly a good way to help determine if the Index is trading
in a bear or a bull.

Below you will find three charts two Trades Station charts
something I've not used for a few weeks. The charts are going
to be extra large and one is a double screen capture. The
third chart is a QChart captured from my third string computer.

Once I get moved I am going to upgrade my Windows operating
system to XP on both my trading desk computers and upgrade my
MS Office software to XP as well. Each operating system and
each program on each computer will be legally licensed, that
should get Bill Gates off my ass...gg

My Trade Station COMPX (NASDAQ Comp) Weekly Semi-log Chart
You might note although the adjusted support line for the
1974 Rising Expanding Triangle was penetrated during the
plunge into the Oct 2002 lows, once the price action moved
back inside the 1974 RET the support line has once again begun
to exhibit supportive influence. You might note the stochastic
model is trying to turn up from an oversold condition and that
the price action has broke above the FRL illustrated in blue.
In addition, this past weeks price action has taken the Index
above its 50-week SMA.

NOTE: This chart is a two monitor screen capture and is extra wide.



My Trade Station COMPX (NASDAQ Comp) Daily Semi-log Chart
Here is a daily view showing the price action with respect
to the support line for the 1974 RET. You also might note that
the price action this past week has moved above both the
50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Average. As the Stochastic
daily model has moved into the overbought range, it will be
critical to see if the Falling Resistance Line illustrated on
the chart in blue continues to now exhibit support.



My QCharts SPX (S&P 500 Index) Weekly Semi-log Chart
My MACD model is testing the zero line, signs as you
pointed out could be confirming signals that the Oct 2002 low
was an important low as I speculated it would be back at the
time of the Oct 2002 low.

I have illustrated the downside momentum slowing by connecting
a each of the significant lows with a trend line. The market
looks like its poise to go higher, but with the daily and many
of the intra-day models in or near overbought, I think we will
see a test of the recently penetrated FRLs or at the least
sideways consolidation to allow the models to cycle.



Regards,
LG

[lee kramer]

While I'm not a long term-trader I do look at long term patterns. Both the COMPX and Dow weekly charts are making classic inverted H&S bottoms with volume confirmation. I'll assume this pattern to remain intact and the precursor to a new/eventual "mark-up" phase unless/until the lows are violated.

[Softechie]

War changes everything? I doubt it...that last war didn't cause the boom...it was internet, new computing paradyms Client/Server and Web, Y2K.

[hk2]

Nice catch Augie. I'm going to look into this more. Initial playing around shows the 14 RSI midpoint crossover seems to match the EOW crossover of the 30 EMA

[WinLoseOrDraw]

that's just a comlicated way of saying we may be switching from sell the top to buy the dip mode. -g-

[challo]

nice charts, augie -