I do not know where WDDD will trade tomorrow or next week or next month. My position on WDDD is this:
On June 27th the Markman hearing will start to see if Legendary Litigator Susman Godfrey and superstar lead council Max Tribble know what they are doing. I think they do know what they are doing and I think we have a very good chance to pass this test.
WDDD is going after the 2 largest games and largest MMORPG company ATVI. This is not because they are the only games that infringe, but they are the best way to state your case and set up quick easy settlements with the rest of the MMORPG industry. I think this because I believe that WDDD's patents are wide and critical to the MMORPG industry and will be easy to win a case esp with the legal team in our corner.
Potential settlement or damages is what this will all come down to in the end. COD and WOW revenue per year is huge. 3.5% running royalty is what is standard for this type of infringement so I would think this is what we will win at court, or in a settlement. I also think we can easily prove that ATVI was a willful infringer so those damages can be trebled or tripled since ATVI knew it was infringing without paying to use those patents.
Again since I think WDDD is just going after COD and WOW to set a precedent not because they are the only ones who are infringing but because this will lay the ground work for quick easy settlements down the road. I think ATVI will in the end settle for all its MMORPG library which will double the amount of the COD and WOW amount.
Then the full ATVI settlement will be 1/3 of the entire industry and I think we will be able to get the same rate we get from ATVI from the other 2/3's of the full MMORPG industry.
Basically the #'s work like this: COD & WOW if they show 3.5% of revenue is paid for the past 10+ years and for the next 3-5 years (still trying to nail down how long past and future will be, obviously future years will be more profitable than past years). So if that # is low lets say $100 Million that will end up being Trebled to $300 Million. Then doubled to include all ATVI MMORPG titles to $600 Million. Then applied to the other 2/3 of the full MMORPG industry to equal out somewhere in the $1.5 Billion dollar range or a stock price of $10 - $12 Cut this # in half and we still have a huge run to $5 - $6 range. Hell even 1/4 this # is still a huge % increase from here to $2.50 - $3.
So I maintain we will not go into the Markman Hearing on 6-27 with a potential reward so high and be able to keep the price this low. Of course there is always a chance we don't make it past Markman and end up back in the .20 range, but I think that is unlikely.