Replies to post #4673 on Fannie Mae Preferred S (FNMAS)

[rosen62]

My view only... Nothing drastic like 8/17 has happened. But nothing was said regarding the chances of a redemption/dividends resumption either. So buyers and sellers will meet in the middle.

Given yesterday's hearing I can't see too much downside from here.

In general, there is a change of heart going on at Washington and in the media and GSEs supporters are starting to come out. But that doesn't mean shareholders are out to party. We still are looked down at and the preferred shares are as fickle as ever. Although a door is opening for 'selling a FF stake', 'an IPO of their new platform', 'government getting paid back', 'not throwing 150 bill invested down the toilette' there is still too much talk of winding them down that can push the weak to sell.

[HUDDUH]

Good luck trading these things. If you can you are a far better man than me.

We're in an uptrend supported by increased earnings. The money invested here - not necessarily us; bigger money - doesn't give a hoot what the FHFA and Treasury imply. We're following profits that either will or will not lead to our salvation. Right now it looks like they will.

[betahighlander]

it is the "uncertainty" here that is drawing investors like us.
95% of the market flees from such uncertainty.

once it is relatively clear the fix will be in.

Just the other day a WSJ writer said pfd investors were fools.
First mention of pfd in the press since Pileki i think.

We are Contrarians testing our thesis as the news unfolds.

[camaro4me]

I think we are in a trading pattern for another 6-12 months

[NYKnuckleballer]

Holding Pattern

The same one we've been in for the past four years.

I think I'd rather we be on the pink sheets than this trading purgatory called the OTCBB.

While the DOW recently crushed through it's all time high, the OTCBB plummeted to at least a 17-year low in terms of overall money volume.

http://www.otcbb.com/TradingData/HistAnnualStats.stm


To take it one step further, look at the top 100 issues on OTCBB for February.

http://www.otcbb.com/dynamic/tradingdata/top100list/top100.htm

FNMAS is like 23rd in share volume but 2nd in money volume.

Of the top 23 stocks, only one has a share price above a buck: FNMAS. Most of them are fractions of a penny.

Then think about FNMAS's daily volume. Most days it's languid, boring, MM's trading back and forth; and the stock price never deviates more than 5% the entire day. Other days, we have million share transfers that truly aren't "market activity". I guess that's two big boys making a deal on the side or something. Something the market never touches.

In short, there is no real money turning over on FNMAS / FMCKJ, let alone the illiquid models.

When FNMAS (and other $25s) drop below a $1.30, buy; when it gets above $2, time to seriously consider selling. Rinse and repeat.

Considering by your own admission, you're an "old" 75 (forget age), it might be better to just rinse and walk away.

[JSstock]

Spring season usually pretty good, but if we have learned anything, the politics rules with these shares, and that can't be modeled.