I think Intel and MS are both playing catch-up to the market.
Software is a bigger commodity than hardware so MS has more challengers, but they have a maintenance base that should keep them going. Which is the main reason that Windows 8 is missing the mark.
On the Intel side, performance is on their side. Every ARM system is underpowered - at least when compared to a 'PC'. So whenever they get this lined up it should go pretty well. But its a bumpy ride for the stock.
About Balmer, I don't know that executives in tech really mater that much. But, he is not considered 'cool' to the mobile market.
JMO