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Zeev Hed

11/15/05 10:39 PM

#437670 RE: CoalTrain #437655

I am not a great believer in the theory that Kondratieff cycles are always associated with major depressions. If you let the Austrian economists manage the world's economies, yes, indeed that would be the case, but even Europe is relaxing its own iron clad rules about deficits as percentage of GDP, leaving the Austrian school to ponder why they worked so hard to make these rules a condition for joining the Euro circuit. A long time ago, I pondered if the Euro can survive controlling monetary policy if there is no common Euroland fiscal policy. I think that the problems in France might be a precursor to more trouble on that front, since Chirac is going to open the fiscal spigots to try and stem the economic dichotomies in his country.

As for 2010, if you read my April 2000 note (#reply-13483082) on my expectations for the longer term market behavior, 2010 is indeed still in the middle of a secular bear market in which economies attempts to do a series of soft landings and the market essentially going nowhere for quite sometime.