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osprey

11/15/05 11:24 AM

#437485 RE: Bullwinkle #437468

Bullwinkle, saw that rising wedge on the 5 year chart a few days ago myself. That is a long term rising wedge and it looks like it has months to go for completion. These days with a choppy market going basically nowhere, tight stops, short holding times, and quick profits work well. Months off is too long to worry about for ST trading.
Edit. The rising wedge is also shallow in slope. Even if it breaks down, might not be that much of a move.

Worth keeping an eye on. What bothers me about years patterns is that they collide with fundamentals. Lynch, "ST market is a voting system. LT it is a weighing system." Fundies always win in the end as Buffett knows but the end can be many years away. I don't see much of a break downward if fundies are at least tolerable. Hard for the market to jump out a window to commit suicide when it has been in the basement.

We all see the storm clouds on the horizon. 8 trillion N.debt, high oil, trade and budget deficits, housing bubble, rising interest rates and inflation. Until the storm breaks with a few lightening bolts, worth watching, not worth worrying about. It might take years to get here.

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Newly2b

11/15/05 12:24 PM

#437534 RE: Bullwinkle #437468

Yes. I follow Bulkowski's work, and he considers a formation with a failure rate that high as unreliable. Of course, the failure rate drops to 6% if one waits for the breakout. LOL

Newly