Feb 20th- Wednesday - Market Outlook - SPX SELL SIGNAL AT THE END OF THE DAY. SEE REASON BELOW ..... A-B C-D Charts SPX & Russell - Bearish Butterfly SPX Charts Pg. 1 and projected moves? GOLD Hits ABC Down Target Chart heading for symetrical triangle target on Pg. 2?
HOLD LONG IS THE SIGNAL IN ALL INDEXES - BUT WE HAD A SELL SIGNAL IN THE SPX - When the price in any equity or index goes over the upper BB on the daily chart and also over 70 on the RSI. -This rarely happens, but the same thing happened in the SPX in September and the reversal dropped 8.9%. (See the chart on pg. 2). - A move down of 8.9% would be a test of the 200 SMA at the 1395 ish level. The weekly chrrt is close to a RSI 70 reading which if you look at the chart on page 1 you willl see how that reading and major tops play hand in hand. The Fed minutes come out today, so that may be the stimulus for the down move in the markets. The VIX went to a yearly low of 12.18 and now there is a bullish triangle that has been fromed, so the stars are lining up. The Euro is set up to jump the trend line down, so that may be the event to take the markets down Wednesday, if this is truly a TOP. The Banking index is getting close to crossing the Bullish Percent, marking a possible TOP in the markets, (see Bank Chart SCTR on pg. 2). The Banking sector has led the markets up with the Fed buying of MBS. The new home sales have cooled off and with the rise in gas prices, consumer confidence and retail sales ex gas will like do the same See chart on pg 2. The Russell 2000 passed the required 1.618 number with contracting volume, so the AB CD is complete and this should be close to a TOP. I have put a few of the A-B & C-D charts along with the SPX Bearish Butterfly on Pg. 1 & 2. These have the projected down moves. The NYSI isn't moving higher with this upper consoldation and is getting closer to a MAJOR TREND CHANGE on a daily basis (see page 2). This lines up with the possible TOP in the SPX. The TLT 20 Yr Bond has a Bullish Triangle on the daily charts and looks like a major move up on Bonds will occur soon.
Euphoric stage: The AAII Sentiment Survey for Feb 14th Bulls 42% and Bears 29%. The Fund Managers Survey - NAAMI recorded an all time high two weeks ago with a 104%, net long response. Extreme levels on everyone of my top indicators, so you have to wonder if this will be a snow ball effect on the downside, with the lack of shorting and Bears, when the market retreat. Byron Wien from Blackstone said on 2/6 that he expects a 1st half correction of 200 points in the S&P 500 or 1300. Goldman downgraded its view on global equities over the next three months, to "neutral" from "overweight". Inflows into long term mutual funds dropped drastically the week of 2/6 down to 683 million after starting the year with over 7 billion. Much of the 7 billion was pulled out in December and then applied with the huge gap up at the begiinning of the year. If we should get into that gap, there is little support under gap support.
The leaders in the markets are the Russell 2000 and the Financial sector charts. I have these on page 1 showing buy and sell points using the SCTR indicator and what you should look for when you are buying or selling indexes like the Russell 2000 . Tops take a lot longer to form than bottoms, so this chart will help you trade. Financials have been leading since Ben announced the 85 Billion a month buy of MBS. To find the ratings click on "Free Charts Tab" and then click on SCTR on the right side of the page.
The 1,5,15,30 minute charts are more for intraday trading only. Tradable Shorts or Long are not recommended to hold overnight.
DOW - Hold Long above 13989 - Tradable Short Below - Hold short below 13973 SPX - Hold Long above 1522- Tradable Short Below - Hold short below 1515 VIX - Euphoric NASDAQ - Hold Long above 3198- Tradable Short Below - Hold short below 3181 NYUD - Buy Signal QQQ - Hold Long above 67.94 - Tradable Short Below - Hold short below 67.64 NYAD - Buy Signal RUT - Hold Long above 924 - Tradable Short Below - Hold short below 915 NAUD -Buy Signal GLD - Hold Short below 159.63 Tradable Long Above - Hold Long above 156.91
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