Replies to post #436980 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[qwave]

What numbers are you referring to that add up to 380, 10+21+50+200 day moving averages? -Q

[pstuartb]

AJ, here's a scan from the April 5, 2004 top, which was good for a ~15% drop in the sox.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=20000922

The numbers were 96, 93, 64, and 77, which is closer to the current scan than a total of 380.

The numbers at the June 1, 2004 top, which was good for about a 9% drop, were 94, 86, 44, 31.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=20195239

Better yet, at the June 30, 2004 top, which was good for a 28% drop going into the August 04 low, were 84, 69, 59, 30.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=20285184

It's arguable what conclusions can be drawn from this, but it's clear we don't need an average of 95% at an IT top for a significant decline to follow.

We saw averages of 95 (total 380) at a number of IT tops during the 2003 rally, when the semis were all flying above their respective MAs. During trading ranges like the one in 2004, the scans at the IT tops saw much lower numbers.