Replies to post #87375 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Ace Hanlon]

Is not Zeev looking at many things in addition to just new highs? I don't think he would keep on the bear suit on unless quite a few of his indicators were flashing yellow or red.

[TREND1]

Rick
The $NAHL (new highs - new lows) shows Oct 2002 as a low very clearly.
Same for Jul 2002, Sep 2001 and April 2001

Just go to stockcharts.com and plot it.
And it's free(g)

and maybe you want to get on my free email list below?

[Zeev Hed]

Rick, not every bottom is the same, read what I wrote about an extremel powerful move to come on October 10th 2002 here #reply-18100366, note that the signal for that bottom was not the existing leadership, but the extreme in the lack thereof. Since the last move down to 1253 on the Naz and to 7400 on the Dow was not associated with extreme negatives by any means, decimation of existing leadership should not have occurred and the run back up to the late February/early March high should be associated with additional leadership if this move is indeed a bull move from a bottom. Since it is not, I expect at bets, a fake recovery high (thus a possibility of exceeding 1353 this week), but nothing more. The Nassacre is alive and well and now we should go into Phase II. Apart of that, it is not just the lack of expansion of new highs that is troublesome (it is a confirming indicator that this is just a DCB), the fact that we are still far from about 350 new lows on the Naz and about 600 new lows on the NYSE is also troublesome and indicative that a bottom is far from having been reached(these are "reach" numbers in my model, but could be exceeded).

Zeev

[lemming]

Rick,

Actually, the 4th-7th up day is generally the window of confirmation of the new rally attempt. I wouldn't pay much attention to the 1st-3rd up days of ANY rally attempt unless I had an amazing knack for picking bottoms or was following someone (like Zeev) who had this knack. Two warning signs to me would be a one day wonder and a gap up, like we had last Thursday.

No long lasting rally occurs without an accumulation day (1%+ index gain on increasing volume) on any of days 4-7 without breaking the low of day 1 (first up day) to confirm the rally. However, even this does not guarantee its success, as we saw after the 2/28 "confirmation" day before this last decline.

-David