Like it's chances for several reasons. 1st volume in/volume out on island reversal. (shows retail support for comeback to previous high gap fill) 2nd up channel with small gap fill below at lower trendline. (lets it bounce there) 3rd large gap above. (always a future goal ahead) 4th 60% increase on insider buying. (hundred reasons to sell, one to buy)
As for the after hours trade question. Wouldn't be very excited or concerned either. It's a celeb stock coming back. Institutional shifts portfolios using stealth and T trades are one way they do it. (through large hidden block orders) Besides $2.4m isn't much for a $1.85 billion market cap company. IMO just some money managers doing what they do.