Below are the updates to med term and short term views from wednesday night. Some major developments today. comments are below each of last nights updates in caps cause i dont know how to do italics.
steve
medium term view: I am seeing some pretty extreme readings in many indicators. This means we are close to reversing up for a few weeks or more. Today could mark the lows of the selling, but the market has to prove it wants to go up. This is the fourth significant intraday reversal since feb 13th. The last two had no follow thru and we dumped the next day. I am no longer looking for more down and think the risk reward now favors long postitions. I am not bullish yet despite my long positions, so i am neutral.
TOO SOON TO SAY FOR SURE THAT YESTERDAY WAS THE LOW, BUT THAT WAS ONE HECK OF A FOLLOW THRU DAY. THE MARKET DID PROVE THAT IT WANTS TO GO UP. I AM NOW A CAUTIOUS BULL AND PLAYS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE LONG SIDE.
Short term view: Today was supposed to be a rally day based on my thoughts Tues night. we did rally but after dropping another 11 pts on spx index. We should get a green close on thursday, but in light of the recent history of the last three intraday reversals, we would be fortunate if it was a dark or even a light shade. The best chance for a green close is a move up at the open. Should we have a flat open and trade down it could lead to more selling. So we are pulling for the futures to be nicely green when the market opens. Europe should rally pretty good and if they do that will help us. 820 spx will be tough resistance if reached
WE GOT THE DARKEST SHADE OF GREEN EVER MADE. WE GOT THE MOVE AT THE OPEN WITH A 10 PT GAP IN SPX. EUROPE DID RALLY HARD AND WAS UP ALMOST 4.5% BEFORE WE OPENED. THEY ENDED UP ABOUT 6%. 820 WAS BLASTED THRU ON SECOND TRY. SPX WENT 7 PTS HIGHER THAN I THOUGHT POSSIBLE TODAY. STUNNING!!!!!
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