My money is on GILD even if it is not first to market.
GILD is favored long-term. Here's some things that could potentially disrupt their plans
1- ABBV reaching the market first in GT1 and capitalizing on pent-up demand from "warehoused patients". Doctors seeing successful outcomes and sticking with the ABBV combo.
2- ABBV showing 3%+ higher SVR rates than GILD in treatment-experienced patients during late-stage testing. Patients that failed prior therapy, along with their doctors, will look closely at the clinical data and pick the strongest combo to avoid re-treatment.
3- GILD assumed a lot of debt to acquire Sofosbuvir. ABBV developed in-house and has the advantage to undercut GILD on pricing to boost demand if needed.
I'm not invested in either company nor picking sides. I'm just building a case for the underdog.
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