Replies to post #1891 on Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

[richbloem]

Data, I didn't think about the myriad of shopping mall Kiosks. You are right, there are many (most) people who have no knowleldge (or even care) about the tech. They simply buy brand or color. In that regards, I would tend to agree that we could see 10% incremental sales. That said, there will still be some percentage of market share taken away from the Samsungs, LG, Mot, etc. who use Q Asics. Don't know what that may be but maybe another 10%. Therefore, Q loses roughly 100,000 chip set sales but gains royalty on an additional 100,000 phones sold. Thats roughly $500,000.00 gained in royalty and roughly $2,000,000.00 lost in chip sales. Of course offset by the net margins. That still sounds like a net loss of something like 1 million dollars.

Don't pick apart my rough numbers because they are only estimates.

[Eric]

T-Mobile USA is the Fastest Growing Network in the USA

Not Qualcomm to be sure but of possible interest ...

* 1.02 million net adds in the quarter, for a year-ending total of about 3.4 million net adds.

* T-Mobile USA ended 2002 with 9.9 million wireless customers.

* APRU up and prepaid down

* T-Mobile USA also posted $1.7 billion in revenues for the fourth quarter of 2002 and $5.7 billion for the full year.

German firm [Deutsche Telekom] posts Europe's biggest corporate loss ever but ...

... the company said it saw hopeful signs in the fourth quarter, ... thanks to a strong performance by its wireless division T-Mobile -- particularly its U.S. operation Bellevue-based T-Mobile USA ... T-Mobile, which Ricke ran before ascending to the top post, is the company's growth engine. It is adding subscribers at a brisk pace in Britain and, especially, the United States, and revenue rose 29.5 percent in the fourth quarter, to $5.7 billion. The company has been talking with rivals about selling a star performer, the U.S. unit of T-Mobile. Telekom bought the business, formerly called Voicestream, in 2001 for $40 billion, and with a 42 percent gain in subscribers last year, it is the fastest-growing operator in the market. The company held talks with Cingular Wireless last year about merging T-Mobile USA with Cingular, but called them off in November when the two sides could not agree on valuation. Deutsche Telekom said yesterday that it would continue to invest about $2.2 billion in capital improvements to keep T-Mobile growing in the United States.

It remains the smallest of the six national operators, and it is still losing money overall, though its operating results have been improving. "T-Mobile USA could be a main source for this year's and next year's Ebitda ... "If subscription increases are as positive this year as in 2002, they could even become No. 5."

>> T-Mobile Posts 1 Million Net Adds in Q4

Wireless Week Staff
March 10, 2003
WirelessWeek
news@2 direct

T-Mobile USA added more than 1 million net new subscribers in the three months ended Dec. 31, even after trimming its prepaid customer base slightly.

The U.S. unit of Germany's T-Mobile International had net adds of 1.02 million in the quarter, for a year-ending total of about 3.4 million, while its prepaid subscribership declined by 61,000 in the period as the carrier shifted its emphasis to postpaid.

T-Mobile USA's operating cash flow reached $128 million in Q4, a $27 million sequential rise from the third quarter, for an annual total of $449 million that compared with a negative EBITDA of $471 million for 2001. Service revenue rose 10 percent sequentially in the fourth quarter to more than $1.4 billion, the carrier reported.

Fourth-quarter churn averaged 2.45 percent monthly while ARPU was $51. <<

>> Telekom Way Off the Mark

German firm posts Europe's biggest corporate loss ever

Hugh Eakin
Berlin
The New York Times
March 11, 2003

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/111906_deutsche11.shtml

Deutsche Telekom said yesterday that it lost $27.2 billion in 2002, the biggest annual loss in European corporate history.

The company said it saw hopeful signs in the fourth quarter, when revenue was up and its loss was much narrower than the year before, thanks to a strong performance by its wireless division T-Mobile -- particularly its U.S. operation Bellevue-based T-Mobile USA. But analysts had been expecting even better results from T-Mobile, and disappointed investors bid down Deutsche Telekom's stock.

The main culprit in the immense annual loss was the sharply reduced value of investments the company made during the technology stock bubble of the late 1990s. Like Vivendi and France Telecom, which both posted losses last week in excess of 20 billion euros, Deutsche Telekom recognized the new market with enormous write-offs on those investments. All three companies changed chief executives last year.

"We are well aware of the scale of the figure," said Kai-Uwe Ricke, Deutsche Telekom's chief executive since November, in a statement that accompanied the 2002 financial results. "We are in no way trying to gloss over this."

The company recorded $16 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter, a 9 percent increase from the comparable period a year earlier. Its net loss fell to $111 million from $2.8 billion a year ago, and the company managed to reduce its total debt by $3.3 billion, to $67.6 billion.

"All in all, the fourth quarter trend is quite positive," said Ralf Hallmann, an analyst for Bankgesellschaft Berlin. "The net loss figures, though historic, are much the same as they were after the third quarter."

T-Mobile, which Ricke ran before ascending to the top post, is the company's growth engine. It is adding subscribers at a brisk pace in Britain and, especially, the United States, and revenue rose 29.5 percent in the fourth quarter, to $5.7 billion.

Profits rose 31.9 percent in the quarter at the company's Internet service, T-Online, reaching $553 million, while the company's traditional cash cow, the T-Com fixed-line network business, managed a small increase in earnings.

Still, the company's heavy debt, much of it run up to pay sky-high prices for new-generation digital wireless licenses and other technology-bubble investments, is weighing on the company's share price. Yesterday, Deutsche Telekom shares sank to a nine-year low of $10.35.

"We are working with a very high debt level, and that frightens investors a lot," said Boris Boehm, a fund manager for Nordinvest in Hamburg, which has 1.4 million Telekom shares.

The company has been selling some peripheral assets in recent months to reduce debt, notably six cable-TV networks that raised $1.9 billion and real estate worth $331 million.

The company has also been talking with rivals about selling a star performer, the U.S. unit of T-Mobile. Telekom bought the business, formerly called Voicestream, in 2001 for $40 billion, and with a 42 percent gain in subscribers last year, it is the fastest-growing operator in the market.

But it remains the smallest of the six national operators, and it is still losing money overall, though its operating results have been improving.

"T-Mobile USA could be a main source for this year's and next year's Ebitda," Hallmann said, referring to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization costs are counted.

"If subscription increases are as positive this year as in 2002, they could even become No. 5," he said.

The company held talks with Cingular Wireless last year about merging T-Mobile USA with Cingular, but called them off in November when the two sides could not agree on valuation. Deutsche Telekom said yesterday that it would continue to invest about $2.2 billion in capital improvements to keep T-Mobile growing in the United States.

Deutsche Telekom did not offer any new forecast yesterday for its results in 2003. But it promised shareholders it would continue to reduce debt by cutting costs, improving cash flow and selling non-core assets and businesses.

Chief Financial Officer Karl-Gerhard Eick said the company expected to sell about 2 billion euros' worth of real estate this year.

"The good signs are overlooked," Boehm said. "The company is on track to reducing its debt by another 12 billion euros this year. As rivals have died out, Telekom is in a sweet spot in the German market, and well-positioned in new technologies. It could do well in a better economic environment." <<

- Eric -