I agree they are a bit of a risk/speculation. They seem to be trying to do a lot (and not a lot of resources). The Roche deal was interesting. A pessimist would say that Roche just wanted to dump it and its worthless. They paid a fraction of what Roche put into it (though Roche still gets some royalties and I believe has some rights to molecules).
I think its because they are very early stage and that is why the deals are all backended. Things like their obesity drug are even earlier then they seem (I think only a monthly injection is viable and they only mentioned that in passing). It'll take some time to develop and see if they have anything for real. Of course if something like their lung cancer partner hits or they get a better partnership the stock could easily move.
In the end I agree with you that its speculative and not something I feel comfortable investing in... so I picked it in my charity portfolio :-).
The idea this small company could solve the delivery issues plaguing RNAi was also hard to stomach.
Per slide 18 of their corporate presentation, ARWR actually claims it "is the first company to have successfully systemically administered sIRNAs and the only biotech that showed clinical success in anything other than liver." Seems to be a pretty bold statement. Not sure what this is based on and whether or not this is 100% accurate.
So now they are a "homing peptide" company.
They are a couple of things now. The homing peptides came through the acquisition of Alvos. Obviously their RNAi focus came from buying the Roche RNAi assets.
Happy New Year to you and all the other bio-junkies on BV.