Replies to post #6314 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

New all-time high for PKI today (eom).

[DewDiligence]

If you have 15 minutes, listen to the new-ABT presentation from the JPM conference; it’s a succinct statement on how the company will exploit The Global Demographic Tailwind:

http://jpmorgan.metameetings.com/webcasts/healthcare13/webcast_of.php?p=10843

[DewDiligence]

PCL set a 4.5-year high today at 47.07 (eom).

[DewDiligence]

IBM’s 4Q12 results…

Non-GAAP EPS: $5.39 (+14% YoY)
GAAP EPS: $5.13 (+11% YoY)
Revenue: $29.3B (+1% YoY)*

*Excluding -1% change from currency and -1% from divestiture of RSS business.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-reports-2012-fourth-quarter-210800326.html

[DewDiligence]

Humira sold at a $10.72B (!) annualized rate in 4Q12, +25% YoY in local currencies:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/abbott-reports-fourth-quarter-full-124600483.html

(Although Humira now belongs to ABBV, ABT reported the results on its 4Q12 CC today because the two companies did not split until 1/1/13.)

ABBV holds its own 4Q12 CC on Jan 30.

[DewDiligence]

3M is bullish on China (from 4Q12 results):

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324539304578261502727334998.html

Demand in China is improving from the past year's sluggish levels, 3M's chief executive officer, Inge G. Thulin, said in a conference call with analysts Thursday. The St. Paul, Minn., industrial conglomerate said fourth-quarter sales in China, excluding electronics, were up about 10% from a year earlier, partly reflecting stronger sales of health-care supplies

The company reaffirmed its forecast that 2013 earnings per share will be between $6.70 and $6.95, up from $6.32 for 2012. [This is non-GAAP.]

The $6.70-6.95 range is unchanged from the EPS guidance given on 3M’s 12/12/12 webcast.

[DewDiligence]

VALE proposes 2013 minimum dividend of $0.78/ADR (a 4% yield on current share price), payable in two installments:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/917851/000110465913005265/a13-3839_16k.htm

January 28, 2013 — Vale S.A. (Vale) announces that its Executive Board has approved and will submit to the Board of Directors a proposal for the distribution of a minimum dividend of US$ 4 billion in 2013, equivalent to US$ 0.776190372 per share for both common and preferred shares outstanding, to be distributed in two installments, on April 30 and October 31, 2013.

The Board of Directors will evaluate the proposal submitted by the senior management, regarding each installment, in the meetings scheduled for April 16 and October 17, 2013.

Note that in 2012, VALE paid the “minimum” dividend of $0.65/ADR (in two installments) plus a “special” dividend of $0.26/sh in November—i.e. a total dividend for the year of $0.91.

In 2013, even if VALE does not pay a special dividend as it did in 2012, the minimum dividend of $0.78 represents a yield a 4.0% at the current share price ($19.35).

[DewDiligence]

PFE hits 7-year high on 4Q12 results, Eliquis US launch, and upcoming ZTS spinoff.

[DewDiligence]

Between HES, PFE, PCL, and CLF, today might be my portfolio's best 1-day performance vs S&P 500 ever. FWIW

[DewDiligence]

HNZ acquired for $72.50/sh in cash; the buyers are Berkshire Hathaway and the private-equity firm, 3G:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323478004578303733925078030.html

The buyout price is a 20% premium to yesterday’s close, and the deal has a nominal value of $28B including assumption of debt. Given Buffett’s involvement, there is (IMO) very little chance of a rival or sweetened offer, nor is there much chance of the deal’s falling through. Consequently, HNZ is trading today at very close to the $72.50 buyout price.

The institutional portfolio I manage has about $1.2M of HNZ stock, so this deal is a big deal for me even though I don’t own HNZ in my personal account. It’s also the second time one of the institutional-portfolio’s stocks was acquired by Berkshire—the first time was Burlington Northern railroad.

p.s. 3G is the firm that took Burger King private in 2010.

[DewDiligence]

MON’s chances look good in USSC soybean case: #msg-84768184.

[DewDiligence]

DE raises dividend by 11% to annualized rate of $2.04:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/deere-board-raises-dividend-11th-155200043.html

At the current share price, the dividend yield at the new rate is 2.3%.

[DewDiligence]

PCL share price toying with $50—it hasn’t been that high since mid 2008.

[DewDiligence]

My Top Picks for Long-Term Buy & Hold (updated)

Since the previous version of this list six months ago, I dropped three names
(ABBV, AGN, PKI), added two names (XOMA, ZTS), and had one name
(HNZ) acquired by a Buffett consortium (#msg-84610907). Two of the names
on my list—CLF and VALE—have been especially bad performers during the
current bull market, but I’m sticking with them on the thesis that the market’s
bearishness toward commodity plays (and iron ore in particular) is overdone.

Below are sample posts for each name. (Some are old but still a good read.)

 
 Biotech/healthcare 
 ABT      #msg-87053716  #msg-87053892  #msg-50473238 
 MNTA     #msg-88007100  #msg-87862037  #msg-70212854 
 PFE      #msg-82548993  #msg-81127453  #msg-78031598 
 XOMA     #msg-89001644  #msg-83090054  #msg-85514239 
    
 Natural resources 
 CLF      #msg-87260717  #msg-86532061  #msg-88988001 
 HES      #msg-87217984  #msg-85271829  #msg-88002724 
 PCL      #msg-83600271  #msg-83602427  #msg-47898395 
 RDS-A/B  #msg-84459871  #msg-86046040  #msg-84124821 
 VALE     #msg-88894147  #msg-77035338  #msg-61404125 
      
 Agriculture and food  
 DE       #msg-60344244  #msg-60344244  #msg-61382266 
 MDLZ     #msg-87046646  #msg-84989239  #msg-80352710 
 MON      #msg-86130866  #msg-86643559  #msg-87688478 
 ZTS      #msg-84129296  #msg-84068724  #msg-84067676 
  
 Technology 
 IBM      #msg-87460673  #msg-87045399  #msg-67607838 
 MMM      #msg-84409832  #msg-81071714  #msg-60356285 

Feedback welcome.