Replies to post #153876 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

And you tell me you cast 16 factory qualit controlled in spec dices you can avoid large trials and some of you said 100 patients were not enough from the first two phase 3 studies were not enough to show Provence prolonged OS.

As I noted in #msg-82327921 there need to be fudge factors for sample bias, but in a choice between investing in either of two different cancer trials of the same size (say 300 events) I'd pick the one that was 0.05 in the 15 patient pre-defined secondary endpoint of its ph ii over the one that was 0.05 in a 100 patient pre-defined secondary endpoint of its ph ii. (But it would be a hard choice so other factors like company competence become more important to me. Whereas in something like HCV it would be a no brainer to pick the smaller trial. In contrast, in psychiatry I'd take the 100 patient trial.)

It would make for an interesting poll (I'll coordinate with Dew on how to set it up) on this board since I'd bet most experienced biotech investors make this judgement - but with different weightings.

PS my response to Caravon ignored this issue because his error was a simpler one.