Replies to post #84603 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[podstock]

punkle, and to add to what Zeev said, GNSS killed me as a short.

I was eventually right, and would have gotten 30+ points profit per share (GNSS ran for 6 months, from Sept 2001 to about March 2002.)

Instead, I stubbornly held on, and lost over 6+ points; I ended up not having to pay too much taxes on capital gains for the 2001 year, lololol.

As someone once remarked, "...the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent..."

best way to short shit like EXPE is to initiate with 100 shares (that's right, 100). That way, if it drops, you've got your profit. But, more importantly, when it runs, you can short the load of your shares at much higher prices.

Zeev is absolutely correct about his remarks on EXPE, b/c GNSS behaved EXACTLY that way. Every little drop (2-3 points) was met with 6-8 points of rally.

GNSS eventually tanked like the shit that it was, but not before a lot of shorts got roasted. My saving grace was my strategy. I start small, and thus was able to withstand the bull-rush.

[punkle]

Zeev, I'm not so sure on this one. Last fall we had a similar conversation about KLAC and you mentioned it could run to 50 (msg #41192 - sorry I don't remember how to link the message).

I thought it was overvalued based on fundamentals but covered anyway at $42.50. I believe it popped up to around $45 and is now down at $34 which puts KLAC about 20% below the $45 mark while the NAS is only down around 12% in the same time frame.

These snorters are definitely more risky but when they fall, they fall hard. Their volatility is high up and down which is probably why they end up in your "Q."

[michael03332002]

Hi Zeev,

I know your getting tired of all the EXPE questions and apologize for adding to that, but IF Monday does see the stock down cuz of the Barrons article, where do you see the short term support.

Dont want to overstay my welcome, but then again, dont want to leave any chips on the table.

thanks for all your effort

M

[ajtj99]

I think EXPE, YHOO, AMZN, and EBAY's high prices can be summed up simply - flight to "quality" by funds invested in technology and internet sectors.

If they've got money they have to put in the market, there are fewer and fewer "quality" options available.

As a class of stocks, I expect these to be some of the last to fall, kind of like MMM and PG in the Dow.