Replies to post #267768 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[TOB]

Then why would ERHC think that they could get a better deal from a partner once they have siesmics completed. Isn't that based on the idea that as they lower the risks they get a better deal from a partner? If the risks actually go up why would a potential partner go along with a better deal for ERHC...and a worse deal for themselves?

A JV farm-in is not taking the Value Proposition by buying ERHE shares and selling them at a profit. The JV is making a very different bet on drilling, and is quite content with the low percentage of discoveries.

Stock investors and oil exploration companies are in a very different business.

Investors will always be more willing to move when the data is more convincing...lower risks.

Nope. Higher risk as the share price is highest pre-drill and the low risk share price run-up has already occurred.

The odds of the pre-drill share price rallying higher than the December lows is 100% historically based upon just one asset, now there are 4, indeed nearly annually repeatable. The odds of finding oil is much lower. So far 0% which is surely higher risk.

But of course the herd of buyers comes in when the ERHE share price is in a rally. Many just attracted to the momentum and the building optimism.

Sure there are no guarantees of drilling success. But right now there is not even data providing confidence of prospectivity. If there was, the sp would be higher.

Wrong. There is a great deal of data already for both Chad and Kenya. In particular Chad has a much higher probability of striking commercial oil than the JDZ had. Chad is closer to appraisal well odds as it is being drilling in proven geology.

Kenya is in trend with 6 billion barrel discoveries in South Sudan and the new discoveries in Kenya which have made this the most prospective new region in Africa.

What there is a lack of is positive investor sentiment and excitement in ERHC. History shows this is unpredictable in timing, but certainly occurred in the past, so is near certain to occur with the new assets.