Onshore can definitely be higher accuracy using modern technology. I've seen other companies with success rates as high as 80% using just 3D seismic.
Note especially that an ultra-deepwater discovery needs to be huge to be commercial and justify a billion dollar development. An onshore discovery can be commercial at quite a small find, with just a tie-in to a pipeline, or a tank that gets trucked out when filled.
Onshore is dotted with countless such small discoveries in oil and gas regions, slowly filling tanks.
Note that ERHC is using techniques and technology that Tullow has used with great success in finding oil. I discussed this with ERHC Geoscientist Martin Wensrich who mentioned that Tullow's theory had guided the selection of Focus Area 1 & 2 in Chad.
ERHC's Exploration Manager also referenced this. Tullow's theory is not a mystery, and note that ERHC Geoscientist Dr. Thuo spent his career studying Kenyan geology and drilling results and locations.
The locations of new wells and discoveries in Chad and Kenya are not a mystery, they can readily be mapped, and then compared and contrasted with the parts of the geology, geological eras, depths, proximity and direction to basins and faults, of prior wells and prior and new seismic and gravity/magnetic studies and targets.
Using Tullow's theories and favoured technology, AIR-FTG, Gore Module seep studies, and modern seismic, ERHC can drill in Chad and Kenya with far greater accuracy than those who drilled in the past.
No question there is higher accuracy, lower cost, and a far lower threshold to commeciality.
I don't know about the jaded investors, hard sell there lol, (I give up) but if ERHE gets noticed there will be a whole new group of investors excited about Kenya, Chad, and possible the EEZ and perhaps even Niger and Ghana, etc. Hopefully they will find a pleasant and optimistic welcome.
This is hard to predict. ERHE being a low volume OTC there are no analysts, and very little media exposure. The recent article in the Houston Chronicle was a very nice surprise. But no doubt there will need to be some new investor excitement, which over the full history for ERHC has come primarily from this message board and the one's which preceded it.