News Focus
News Focus
icon url

Babylon

03/08/03 12:54 AM

#84513 RE: mlsoft #84501

Thanks for the reply Mlsoft, I always enjoy your analogies (like the quicksand one this time). I do have a direct question for you if you don't mind. If, as it seems to appear, we are in, or going into a deflationary period (AG's walk is telling here), what is the longer-term premise of being bullish on Gold? The only reason I can see personally is the ultimately inflationary impact of the current dollar situation....but I'm not so certain how long that will take to be reflected in the miners (perhaps it has to some extent with the current price discounting several months out). The other reason (Ok, that's two now) is the "safety" net, which unless there are obvious inflationary pressures, seem to be very temporary in the duration of time, and would present themself better as trades than LT investments.

In a deflationary circumstance I don't see anything really safe in its wake....unless the Fed is sucessful in their attempts in reflating. The downside risk IMO is they don't succeed and all the babies (hard assest) go down. So isn't the bet really being placed on their success? Your thoughts on this would be appreciated when you have a moment. TIA





icon url

Public Heel

03/08/03 9:58 AM

#84537 RE: mlsoft #84501

I would not say rate cuts have been "ineffective". I would rather say only that they have not achieved the desired effect, assuming what's desired is a rebound of the economy.

If you assume, rather, that the goal of rate cuts has been to stall economic collapse until a recovery occurs on its own... then I would say that the cuts have been effective so far, but that their ultimate effectiveness has yet to be proven one way or the other.