I think that you're trying to answer EVERY point thrown at you --- and it "ain't" worth it.
Too many get RE-peated time and time again --- when it ALL "boils down to": THE M-O-N-E-Y!!! (In our 'system'!)
"Rocks" with POTENTIAL VALUE are just that --- UN-til some/E-nuff 'money'/'backing' shows up!
And then to PRE-sume that the 'stock market' is "logical" --- well that's just NON-"logical"!
20/20 hind-'sight' can be super-critical of someone's talents and performance --- as it deals with one (or a few) point(s) without really "knowing" ALL of the matrix of events occurring with-in each 24-hour period, week, month, ... and then "flexibilities" as may be needed. (Yes!: One MAY have to change horses in mid-stream!)
And, on top of ALL of that: Each person is on his/her own agenda --- and each 'mind'/'brain' works, or doesn't work, D-I-F-F-E-R-E-N-T-L-Y!!!