You may assign whatever probabilities you like to these various events, but the assertion that the stock will automatically be dead money for some specified period of time is misguided, IMO.
Failure to get the en banc did it for me. Every legal claim went against MNTA. Now, only a favorable Supreme Court ruling can protect that patent...
If the Supreme Court refuses to hear the matter, wouldn't it essentially be saying to companies who want to pursue creating generics: "Don't bother, because whatever you come up with to copy the brand won't be patent-protected!"?