Replies to post #10029 on Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[iwfal]

Is this an overall probability of success at USSC… or a conditional probably of success assuming cert is granted?

A total probability:

a) >90% chance that the cert is granted (or consolidation allowed or the case is not consolidated but the other case is heard and this case is remanded to the appeals court or ). And the reason I give such high odds is because of the very broad ruling by the appeals court and it being largely in conflict with the earlier ruling which is being heard by the USSC.

b) around 80% chance that if the USSC hears the case they decide more in favor of Momenta than for Amphastar.

[straight up]

I give it a 50-50 to be considered by the SC. If it gets there it is another 50-50. That means Clarence Thomas may be the swing vote.(Yikes!) When 50% of the Circut Judges will not even hear the case en banc, I have little confidence. That is why I reduced my holdings to 25% of my recent position. There seems to be some question as to the validity of a "testing procedure" as an enforceable patent. I have been a "true believer" since 2005, but I also know baseball and three strikes. The three inventors from MIT made over 10 million each (2 are now gone), but there may not be much left for investors.