Replies to post #1049 on Ander's Market Theories (AMKTH)

[AnderL]

Gasoline demand sees biggest fall in decade: API
By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:50 AM ET Oct. 19, 2005

I'm paying 2.40 a gallon where I live. Will it make people drive any more? Lol, not likely. With rising NG prices I expect many will be curbing spending on the expectation they will need the money to pay for home heating.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- U.S. gasoline deliveries, a key measure of demand, fell almost 4% in September to log their biggest year-to-year decline in more than a decade, the American Petroleum Institute reported Wednesday morning.

"Motorists apparently found ways to manage fuel use and travel more efficiently in the face of higher September gasoline prices following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita striking along the U.S. Gulf Cost," the API said in a monthly report.

At the same time, September domestic crude output fell 22% from a year ago to 3.95 million barrels per day -- its lowest level since 1943, the API said.

For the third quarter, crude output averaged 4.8 million barrels per day, "the lowest quarter in more than 50 years," it said.

Refinery capacity utilization reached its lowest level for the month of September in 20 years, the API said. It averaged 82.7% for the month, with one-fifth of the county's refining capacity not in operation by the end of September in the wake of Katrina and Rita.

Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

[AnderL]

NDX is really testing my nerve today. It broke 1531 which would have had me adding more today, but in turn reversed up by roughly a similar amount. Since it is at a smilar price as my original long position from last Thursday with no real sign as to its direction as of yet I have to hold off from any purchase or flip to a short.

This buying demand in the 1530 range is about 50% of the reversal and suggests that it is consolidating for further short term upside and a second test of 1550. This kind of actions is turning daily charts more positive and at the least leveling off weekly.

There is only 1 more day of economic reports and then Options expire at weeks end. Volatility is up dramatically into Expiry and based on current tables Call volume is significantly higher out of the money on Calls for Oct05 while put volume is slightly higher out of the money on Puts. With sentiment expecting a rally into Expiry and then a drop afterward I expect that the opposite may hold true as the Options writers always have the advantage. I expect from these internals that we will consolidate under 85 on the QQQQ into Friday killing all the out of the money puts and calls and run up next week causing a fall out on the Nov05 put side.

Oct05

QQQJK 	1.05 	+0.05 	1.00 	1.05 	11,992 	42,078 	trade 	37.00 	QQQVK 	0.05 	0 	0 	0.05 	11,791 	173,291 	trade 
 QQQJL 	0.25 	+0.05 	0.20 	0.25 	32,004 	130,275 trade 	38.00 	QQQVL 	0.25 	-0.05 	0.20 	0.25 	46,541 	305,995 	trade 
 QQQJM 	0.05 	0 	0 	0.05 	302 	276,359 trade 	39.00 	QQQVM 	1.05 	+0.20 	1.00 	1.05 	13,643 	242,779 	trade 
 QQQJN 	0.03 	-0.02 	0 	0.05 	107 	207,216 trade 	40.00 	QQQVN 	2.00 	-0.05 	1.95 	2.00 	459 	117,285 	trade

Nov05

QQQKJ 	2.15 	-0.05 	2.25 	2.30 	361 	5,104 	trade 	36.00 	QQQWJ 	0.20 	+0.05 	0.15 	0.20 	467 	125,358 	trade 
 QQQKK 	1.44 	+0.09 	1.40 	1.45 	3,421 	18,132 	trade 	37.00 	QQQWK 	0.32 	-0.03 	0.30 	0.35 	27,443 	156,511 	trade 
 QQQKL 	0.75 	+0.05 	0.70 	0.75 	11,871 	47,425 	trade 	38.00 	QQQWL 	0.62 	-0.03 	0.60 	0.65 	26,148 	137,833 	trade 
 QQQKM 	0.30 	0 	0.30 	0.35 	11,408 	60,275 	trade 	39.00 	QQQWM 	1.20 	-0.05 	1.15 	1.20 	9,849 	83,693 		trade 
 QQQKN 	0.10 	0 	0.05 	0.10 	1,350 	56,117 	trade 	40.00 	QQQWN 	2.10 	0 	2.00 	2.05 	1,154 	33,518 		trade

Conclusion: I'm holding my original long position (21.55) and am not adding more or flipping short to USPIX.