Replies to post #17124 on Biotech Values

[St_armands_man]

GTCB Math -

Dew - thanks for the Scientific American article. In the article, Cox estimates that total Atryn sales could be as high as $700 million annually if you include the full potential array of treatments (coronary bypass, burns, etc.)

If you assumed that they achieved:
1) Half of that revenue estimate - $350 million
2) At a 15% after-tax profit
3) With a 40 multiple
4) With 60 million shares outstanding (after further dilution)

The above equates to $35/share (it's now at $1.37)

Assuming I haven't screwed up the math, if they make this work, I'll be a very wealthy man. If they don't, it will be retirement in that Winnebago..!

Seriously, at this point it's a crap shoot. I'm in for the ride though as the upside could be significant.

[gfp927z]

Dew, Thanks for posting that informative GTCB article, which outlines both the promise and the challenges for the company. BTW, just curious if you know their approx current cash level and burn rate? Thanks.