Replies to post #152498 on Biotech Values

[zipjet]

Rick Shea, said NVS’ Lovenox run rate is $240-300M, which is considerably higher than the $200M figure I used in my NPV analysis in #msg-81504404. If we take Rick Shea’s statement at face value, the NPV of MNTA’s fully-taxed royalty stream is $150-190M,

I don't think MNTA ever used up their TLCF (tax loss carry forwards). And they are again losing money.

So it seems to me the royalty value need not be reduced by taxes that are not going to happen.

On the value of MNTA:

It is clear that the MC is approximately equal to the EV less royalty.

The company is back to burning cash with little near term chance that will change.

The concept that MNTA could copy drugs that others would not be able to do has been smashed. So even if MNTA does it again with Copaxone - how long will the advantage last?

And if MNTA can do it again with FoB's how long will the advantage last? IF MNTA's tech was really advanced, why hasn't some pharma taken them out?

ij

[DewDiligence]

Transcript of MNTA’s CS webcast (11/15/12):

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1012311-momenta-pharmaceuticals-management-presents-at-credit-suisse-2012-healthcare-conference-transcript