As a corollary of #msg-81499060, the NPV of MNTA’s Lovenox royalty stream—assuming no help whatsoever from the legal system—ought to be about $200M on a pre-tax basis (the same number as NVS’ expected annual sales) by applying a 10x multiple to MNTA’s 10% royalty.
One could debate whether a multiple as high as 10x is appropriate for this royalty stream; I think it is because: i) oral anticoagulants will have only a modest effect on Lovenox sales (#msg-76857091); ii) I don’t expect further significant price erosion in the Lovenox market because there has already been a lot; and iii) the $200M of assumed annual sales for NVS is only a 15-17% market share (#msg-81499060).
On a fully-taxed basis, $200M pre-tax is worth about $125M.
When you deduct $125M from MNTA’s current enterprise value of about $175M, the current share price has only $50M baked in for all other components of MNTA’s business.
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