Replies to post #81884 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mish]

Couple of points. You are talking about "developing" countries. They will have little effect on our job market and our economy as well as other developed countries. Here in the US I am projecting that we will have a very good job market for those wanting a job. Here is a startling satistic- half of all federal workers will be eligible for retirement by 2006. If you go to this site; http://www.npg.org/facts/us_historical_pops.htm

You will see that we really don't have that many new folks entering to work force over the next 15 years. We have more leaving the work force. Got to ask yourself where the health industry is going to fid enough workers to care for all the baby boomers. Looking at alzheimers, there are currently about 4 million Americans that have the disease. By 2050 there will be an estimated 14 million. With each patient needing about 2 caregivers on average you can see how this one disease will require many new workers in the years ahead. The problem of course is that we will be more than likely looking for these workers in a smaller pool than we have right now.

As for "They will have little effect on our job market and our economy as well as other developed countries.", why are we losing jobs left and right to China and India?

As for health care: no doubt those jobs are increasing, but can we survive and prosper with everything so concentrated in one sector? Not so sure myself, and no one still has answered what is going to happen to the marginal homeowner now who is very feaful (and rightfully so) of losing a job now? Are we to retrain everyone as health care workers?

The decreasing numbers of workers you cite brings about yet more problems I am afraid. How are we going to pay for all those medical expenses and SS benefits with fewer people supporting larger numbers of retirees who are living longer?

No matter how one twists or turns, there are no magic cures other than debt/credit implosion IMO.

M

[jdaasoc]

Here is a startling satistic- half of all federal workers will be eligible for retirement by 2006.

One of two things will happen

1- worker can't afford to retire

2- worker job is going to be outsourced and he gets chance to compete for it at lower wage scale especially if he is at higher grade like a health care professional and step, a term for someone with more years experience and pay for same job.