If you also look at the 2001 summer distributional top as a triangle with a base at 1960, you can see the break of the bottom of the triangle came about 78% of the way to the apex, which is pretty textbook.
The falling resistance line on the triangle and the base will meet at about 136-days from the Dec. 2 top (April 23?).
Taking the Bulkowski textbook breakdown at 75% (my recollection from an Augie post) into the formation, we get 102 days. That's March 5. That's 3-times 34 (fib).
We could get a high March 5, Drop to NDX 945-973 by March 11, then rise up to NDX 1017 for options expiration March 18 (13-days after the March 5 high, and within the wiggle room for the 55-day and other longer Fib clusters).
From there we could drop to test the October lows by anywhere from April 2-12, which is a 34-day low Fib turn (4-2) and a Bradley turn.
The NDX target is 792, which would be a slight breach of the 10-10-2002 lows. We'd have to drop 10-20 NDX points a day to reach that level from March 18, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility when you take out intra-day spikes at the high and low.
If that happens, we've got a long Bradley cycle into July 2. If this coincides with a good result in Iraq, lower oil prices, etc, (as well as very oversold weekly and monthly charts) we could see a technical bounce into July that could test one of the recent highs, probably filling the gap at 1040-1057 NDX. The 2001 COMP run from 1387-2098 was a 75% re-trace of the prior drop, and 1057 would be a 75% re-trace of a drop from 1154 NDX to 792 NDX.
All of this is assuming the bear patterns prevail. If the bullish patterns prevail, the outcome could be different. However, the fibs and T/A suggest we could be looking at something like this scenario into April. We'll know soon enough.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
