Zeev...
I agree completely, and whatever happens over the next few weeks with Iraq, I fully expect a large takedown in the markets. Everyone is looking for the great war rally, and we may get one - but if it indeed comes (reasonable possibility) it will be very brief, I think, and then we run to new lows. There is only a surface similarity between now and 1990/1991 and the differences are far more important than the similarities with almost all of the differences being negative.
Having checked with all but one of my sources (he is out of the country on business), I am hearing the same things but with more gloom than before. I expect warnings to be the norm for the tech sector (especially in the chip and equipment sectors) over the next month leading into earnings, starting with INTC at their mid-quarter conference call. I expect the same from TER and NVLS at their CC's, and the NVLS one should be a surprise since they were borderline optimistic on their last call and guided higher. I think we will hear a different story on the upcoming one.
I am still hearing that wireless is getting inventory stuffed into the pipeline and that will hurt badly down the road. The low end is already sitting on very high inventories and they are building elsewhere. I am beginning to add some communications chip makers to the swing/core short group and will add to the positions on any war related rally.
Speaking of channel stuffing, I suspect that HPQ did that this quarter to make their numbers and it will come back to haunt them. On another front, the EDS warning and comments this afternoon bode ill for IBM, which is much more overpriced and I am not convinced has any cleaner books. IBM's quarter has started slowly according to what I hear.
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