With so many Big Economic Events this week, I don't see much action today as everyone is awaiting the Reports. Besides the Economic Releases . . . there is also the FOMC meeting this week. go HERE and see the Economic Reports due out near the middle of the page. Scroll to the bottom of that widget and then you can click to go right and see the events due out each day this week.
US Unemployment Rate -.2 to 8.1% This month the number of people employed fell by 119,000. In the last two months, the number of people employed fell by 314,000! In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,695,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 971,000. This month the Civilian Labor Force fell by 368,000. Last month, those "not" in the labor force increased by 348,000 to 88,340,000, another record high. This month we set another record high with a whopping 581,000 dropping out of the labor force. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed. In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 2,723,000 Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,347,000. Participation Rate fell .02 to 63.5%; There are 8,031,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work, a decrease of 215,00. This one the only bright spot in the report. Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 5.033 million a decline of 152,000 (likely an artifact of the decline in the labor force). Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.
Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness. In response to that weakness the Fed responded with Panic! and I repeated my statements on employment and unemployment. I am going to reiterate my belief that the household survey tends to lead and today's panic suggests the Fed believes that as well.
Here are two key Household Survey figures.
In the last two months employment dropped by 314,000. In the last two months the labor force fell by 518,000 while those not in the labor force rose by an amazing 929,000!
In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,695,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 971,000.
Those not in the labor force rose by 2,723,000 to yet another record high 88,921,000.
That is an amazing "achievement" to say the least, and one that has the Fed in panic mode.
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