Replies to post #16213 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: AGN, RNAI (Sirna) collaboration

This is a significant deal for both companies and it shows just how far off-base the RBC report on GENR was (#msg-7850472). In that report, the RBC analyst touted the terms of the 2002 AGN deal with EMND to develop Panzem for AMD, but I noted that the Panzem deal was dead as a doorknob. (Do not believe everything you read by Wall Street analysts!)

[DewDiligence]

Re: Sirna – AGN deal in AMD

Sirna (ticker RNAI ) ended down on the day today. Here are some possible reasons, which are mutually contradictory to some extent:

1. The deal has very little up-front money for Sirna ($5M). Investors may have expected more, considering that Sirna-027 is Sirna’s lead program and the drug is already in the clinic.

2. With AGN due to make most of the money if Sirna-027 succeeds, Sirna’s upside has been capped.

3. People don’t think an RNAi-based drug can compete with Lucentis, especially after ALNY and MRK dropped development of their AMD drug.

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I’ve never been a big fan of Sirna, and this deal doesn’t make me one.