Replies to post #89764 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[volgoat]

ES is running this show and he won't drop the ball and he won't deal on their terms...IMO...

and agreed, no way no how can they go alone......



Mr. Eric S. Swartz is a Principal at Roswell Capital Partners, LLC. Mr. Swartz has been with the firm for past 16 years. Mr. Swartz also founded Swartz Investments, LLC in 1993 and serves as its President. He has 24 years of experience in the securities business. Mr. Swartz has been involved in leading and structuring over 130 private equity transactions in small-cap public companies. Prior to starting Roswell Capital Partners in 1994, he was with American Wealth Management, Inc., from May of 1993 to March 1994. Mr. Swartz served as a Vice President at Bear Stearns & Co. Inc., from December 1988 to May 1993 specializing in foreign institutional equity investments in United States securities. Prior to that, he was a Vice President at Oppenheimer & Co., where Mr. Swartz was involved in overseas placements of equity and debt for institutions in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, France, Australia, and New Zealand. He has been a Director of Peregrine Pharmaceuticals Inc. since November 3, 1999.

[Fire Fox]

Good post Firechief. I agree with your reasoning about the loan and with your conclusion:

There's a transformational deal ahead. PPHM has bought some time to negotiate better deal terms, but not to go solo.

[keep_trying]

Firechief, thanks for your insightful response. One reason why I think PPHM has opened up a path for going it alone is that they need to do so to close a good partnering or buyout deal.

You suggest Oxford needs an alternate source of repayment of the loan to PPHM and I fully agree. I also agree that a Pharma deal is PPHM's preferred track. However, Oxford's alternate source could be provision of funding directly to PPHM for the FDA approved Phase 3 Bavi trial in exchange for ??? in share holder equity.

The amount of funding PPHM needs to keep the lights on and do a Phase 3 Bavi trial over the next couple years is coming into the zone of what an investment cash for equity deal could cover, even though PPHM carries financial bumps and bruises from bringing Bavi through to the Phase 2 trial interim results we expect to hear about this week. PPHM still can walk from the table if Pharma negotiations get funky and ask Pharma back to the table when PPHM holds more aces. If Pharma companies are still not willing to deliver Bavi value in an agreement, what other choice does PPHM have today that they couldn't have signed off on a year or two back? There is no sense in PPHM having successfully run through the treatment development risk gauntlet to just turn the reins over to Pharma without getting value realization associated with a Bavi product ready to go into Phase 3 trials.

What does PPHM still need money wise to get the job done solo? Maybe another $50 to $100 million on top of the $30 million, plus curtailed spending on nonessential operations? But then again, perhaps the Oxford loan instrument was cooperatively done with PPHM and a Pharma partner candidate finalist and there are practical development issues that needed more time to come to fruition. That sounds better than speculating that Pharma is playing negotiations hardball and PPHM needed to finance survival funding through the FDA trial approval stage to bring Pharma reasoning in line with a proper proposal, LOL

Best wishes and IMO.

KT