Replies to post #147661 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

LLY—You may be certainly right about less than 25% - we'll get a better idea once we see the actual figures.

I’m not quibbling over a few percentage points here; rather, we have a substantial disagreement. I think the probability Solanezumab makes it to market is less than 5%, and that’s based on a relatively favorable presentation of the full dataset.

The chance of approval without large new phase-3 trials is close to nil, and I don’t think LLY’s BoD is likely to approve such an investment. Even if the BoD does approve such an investment, the new phase-3 trials are big favorites to fail, IMO.