How are states going to get back on track.
California, Texas, New Jersey and a dozen other staes perhaps are in serious serious problems, and required to have balanced budgets if I am not maistaken.
This means cutbacks in services (loss of jobs), higher taxes, or most likely some combination.
I believe unemployment is seriously understated. I also see almost no tech job listing in the papers. The Chicago Tribune used to have 10 pages of tech jobs in the hetydaya but now there is less than 1/2 page and many jobs have obscure requirements. Furthermore we are losing jobs to India at wjhat appears to be a accelerating trend.
I do not see this economy recovering until I see jobs, and from my viewpoint the job situation is getting worse not better. In the meantime somewhere we have $20B to bribe turkey for a war we do not need. I have no idea the total cost over the long haul of the war in Iraq, but I see that money going down the drain.
What are the odds of another terrorist attack in the US soon after we attack Iraq? Is the affect of that properly discounted by stock markets and economy?
GM and F are producing cars and losing heavily on them. How long can that continue. I believe that the GM contract is up this year. Is an auto workers strike figured into the recession scenario?
There are construction and housing related jobs. When do you see a slowing in this area? Already we are seeing "skip-a-pay" mortgages, 105% mortgages, borrowed down payment programs, builder provided down payments, etc. Does that indicate that we are down to the final marginal or even sub-marginal borrowers? I suppose if long term rates drop another 1/2 point, I will refinance yet again (just did last week), but we have to be about at the end of the barrel on this method of proping up the economy. How long before the bond vigalanties start screaming for higher interest rates to offset increasing risks of defaults as well as rising inflation as seen on $CRB and PPI.
Lots of questions here but it would seem to me to take a near miracle to muddle thru, with a sustained shock in oil, more job layoffs, more terrorism in the USA, a plunging US$, a prolonged war, a consumer entrenchment, increase loss of tech related jobs to India, state budget cutbacks, rising medical and insurance premiums, and or slowing housing as serious risks.
If we see increasing jobs, oil comes down, terrorism is muted, the $ stays firm, housing stays firm, etc, it appears we can muddle thru. How likely is that?
I believe that any tax cuts we receive will be more than offset by rising medical, property, and auto insurance rates, as well as rising property taxes, increased fees, and higher fuel costs.
Seriously, can you address some of these concerns as well as timetables for a housing slowdown, and where in particular jobs are going to come from?
Thanks.
M
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