Replies to post #263864 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[emdyal]

IMO this blanket defense of Ntephe is hurting ERHE more than helping it !!

[TOB]

‘Quote’ button, not the ‘bold’ button, please. But thank you for trying.

they have not explained the prospectivity question and until seismic is done, they really have no clue. cvx found oil in block 1, snp found no oil according to erhc, so closeology is nota selling point with their track record.

Track record in the JDZ means little in the EEZ, Chad and Kenya. The targets either have oil in them or they don’t. “Closeology” only suggests that an area may be interesting. For example it may show an oil source in the area and existence of a working petroleum system. Work still has to be done on new “close” areas to determine if they are prospective enough to drill.

Even once determined to be worth the expense of drilling, there is still no way to know if the targets will contain oil or not. 10% - 20% odds of success is a decent estimate, but note that is over hundreds of wells. It is possible to have a 20% win ration and have 10 in a row win, or 10 in a row ‘dry’.

There is also target selection, if 20 targets are selected and only 5 drilled, that only proves what is in those five. There's a huge luck factor involved as the science of DHIs is not high accuracy. I know many people got carried away with the JDZ and thought the first 5 wells were a sure thing. That's the hopeful aspect of human nature.

As far as “they really have no clue”, what blocks are you talking about? There are many clues, including seismic studies which varies block by block. I think there is enough to want to own the rights and justify additional studies and analysis, but not enough yet to drill.

Whether there is enough for a JV to want to join ERHC remains to be seen, but I think the terms will improve when additional studies or analysis on existing studies are done, but only if they indicate good targets.

3 billion shares, they better find a lot of oil.

Even one billion shares a good commercial discovery is critical for a large sp increase. Unless the basket of unexplored assets leads to a favourable buy out. Though we have seen huge rallies without a drop of oil discovered. But I agree, the hope is they find “a lot of oil”. No doubt that’s the whole idea.

tob, you can't have a vote on the rights offering with no details given, so people show up at the meeting and have no idea what they are voting on? they have to announce ahead of time some kind of details.

The vote is on the authorized share increase and detail has already been given. Of course you can have a vote. I think there will be some additional clarification if the SEC doesn't reject the filing, but there is enough detail in the preliminary Form 14 to call a vote.