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amj23

08/17/12 1:54 PM

#263859 RE: TOB #263858

i'm pretty sure that the highest priority is how is erhc going to pay for these assets and who will be in charge. the major dilution question will be answered soon enough, then we will see what happens with the sp, as usual no one knows what they have up their sleeve, but if their answer is to dilute out the shareholder's and keep the cash to operate on, there is no question that shareholder's will be running for the exit.

i was gone for a few days and came back to read this post of yours. forgive me if i'm wrong, but that post definately does not look like a promising future for erhc and i know you want to be positive, but it really looks bleak in your own words.



Onshore is definitely faster and cheaper. But of course success is not guaranteed.

ERHC could raise money by issuing new shares and drill dry wells in both Chad and Kenya. Spreading the discovery risk like this increases the odds of a discovery, but it also increases capital risk as money is raised without a guarantee of successful drilling results.

Operational risk is also increased as the company moves to areas where it lacks experience and will need additional staff, and of course the dilution risk to existing shareholders should the only discoveries ever made be in the JDZ where ERHC has free caries.

I know the last one is a big consideration for many investors who invested based upon the JDZ solely and remain focused there.

Personally I approve of rolling the dice on Kenya and Chad, and in the EEZ where we've not yet seen any operator offering full carry.

So ERHC may need to pay its own working interest, and may need to do some additional seismic work to improve target identification and attract an operator. The upside is ERHC would keep a higher interest percentage for assuming their share of the capital risk.

As CEO Peter Ntephe said, this is a high risk business with potentially high reward.


uestion that shareholder's will be running for the exit.