Replies to post #147265 on Biotech Values

[NP1986]

What are your reasons for dropping NVS?

[bladerunner1717]

Dew,

Why did you drop CVX and XOM? I bought both on your recommendation and have done quite well with them. Is it just a valuation thing?


Bladerunner

[hiddenflem]

Thanks Dew, I see that Seth Klarmen is also buying Hess.
http://www.fool.com/investing/mutual-funds/2012/08/15/heres-what-super-investor-seth-klarman-has-been-b.aspx?source=itxsitmot0000001&lidx=3

[DewDiligence]

Weekend quiz: One of the sample posts in #msg-78629786 was a joke. Which one?

[DewDiligence]

[OT]—HNZ hits all-time high on strong growth in emerging markets:

#msg-78995757

[DewDiligence]

EPA approves MON’s Triple-Pro Refuge-in-a-Bag corn:

#msg-79237993

Those who have followed the quizzes on this board may remember that this product was the subject of one of them.

[DewDiligence]

[OT]—CLF up 13% on China stimulus: #msg-79323462. Rest of mining sector is doing well today too.

p.s. Even after today’s move, CLF is yielding more than 6%.

[DewDiligence]

Stocks Close at Multiyear High

[The story in #msg-79323462 was a major driver for today’s move, IMO.]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444273704577637024081962272.html

›September 7, 2012, 5:32 p.m. ET
By MATT JARZEMSKY

Stocks edged up, adding to multiyear highs, as disappointing August jobs growth stoked speculation the Federal Reserve will unveil further measures to juice the U.S. economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 14.64 points, or 0.1%, to 13306.64, its highest finish since December 2007. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 5.80 points, or 0.4%, to 1437.92, its highest close since January 2008. [Including reinvested dividends, the S&P 500 is way ahead of its Jan 2008 level, of course.] Materials shares led the advance on Friday [e.g. CLF was +14% and VALE +7%], with coal miner Alpha Natural Resources jumping 99 cents, or 17%, to $6.90, after China approved infrastructure spending to support its economy [#msg-79323462]. The Nasdaq Composite Index ticked up 0.61 point, or less than 0.1%, to 3136.42, building on a rally that has seen it surpass a high hit nearly 12 years ago.

For the week, the Dow rose 1.6%, the most since late July, and the S&P 500 had its steepest increase, 2.2%, since early June, thanks to a rally Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi detailed a bond-buying program aimed at cutting the borrowing rates of the euro zone's most debt-strapped countries.

"The path of least resistance is higher, not lower," said Mark Lehmann, president at JMP Securities. "Despite all the bad news and all the fear and all the problems and blowups, the market is making new highs. That's telling you that people are underexposed to equities, that you do have underparticipation, but there is a recovery going on."

The U.S. economy added 96,000 jobs in August, the Labor Department reported, short of economists' expectation for 125,000 jobs. The unemployment rate, obtained in a separate survey, fell to 8.1% from 8.3% a month earlier, bucking economists' predictions for it to remain unchanged.

"It's not bad enough to have immediate QE3, but it's not good enough to take additional stimulus off the table," said Dean Junkans, chief investment officer of Wells Fargo Private Bank, referring to "quantitative easing," or asset purchases by the Federal Reserve meant to support the economy.

Mr. Junkans said the drop in unemployment offered little comfort because it reflected the fact that Americans are leaving the labor pool. The labor force participation rate fell to 63.5% in August from 63.7% a month earlier, the department reported, the lowest since 1981.

Small-capitalization stocks outperformed Friday, with the Russell 2000 index adding 0.5%. Sectors seen as tied to global growth, such as energy and financials, also outpaced the broader market.

"With a weaker-than-expected payroll number, investors are really positioning themselves for QE," said Steven DeSanctis, small-cap strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch "They're looking for outperformance by the riskier assets."

European markets were broadly higher, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.2%. The index reached a 14-month high in intraday trading before pulling back.

Asian markets surged, with China's Shanghai Composite running up 3.7% after Beijing's approval of infrastructure projects. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average climbed 2.2%.

Crude-oil prices rose 0.9%, to settle at $96.42 a barrel, while gold prices added 2%, to finish at $1,737.50 a troy ounce. The dollar fell against the euro and yen. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.662%.

In corporate news, Kraft Foods fell 2.32, or 5.5%, to 39.99, weighing on the Dow, after giving outlooks for the two companies into which it plans to split its business. [I think KFT’s split-up is dumb, FWIW.]

Etc.‹

[DewDiligence]

PKI posts solid quarter, raises 4Q12 EPS guidance:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/25/perkinelmer-results-idUSL1E8LPE8R20121025

Excluding one-time items, the company earned 45 cents per share, just ahead of analysts' average estimate of 44 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S… Revenue rose 13 percent to $509.6 million.

For the full year, PerkinElmer raised its estimate for adjusted [i.e. non-GAAP] earnings per share to between $2.05 and $2.07 from its previous range of $2.00 to $2.05.

Since non-GAAP EPS for the first 9 months of 2012 was $1.41, PKI is now forecasting 4Q12 non-GAAP EPS of $0.59-0.64.

As previously noted, PKI is a strong beneficiary of The Global Demographic Tailwind. I’ll post additional info from the CC this evening if anything noteworthy comes up.

[DewDiligence]

AGN acquires private SkinMedica for $350M in cash:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/allergan-inc-acquire-skinmedica-inc-140000228.html

SkinMedica sells prescription and non-prescription cosmetic products that are dispensed at physician’s offices. Its leading product is Vaniqa, a topical cream to eliminate unwanted facial hair that obtained FDA approval in 2000 under the sponsorship of BMY and Gillette and was later sold to a third party that went bankrupt; SkinMedica acquired the US rights in 2004 from the bankruptcy court, and BMY still performs the manufacturing.

[DewDiligence]

My Top Picks for Long-Term Buy & Hold (updated)

Since the previous version of this list in mid 2012, I dropped two names
(AGN, CLB) and added two (ABBV, MDLZ). Below are a few sample
posts for each name. (Some sample posts are old but still a good read.)

 
 Biotech/Healthcare  
 ABT      #msg-75216470  #msg-62037218  #msg-50473238  
 ABBV     #msg-80347438  #msg-80545670  #msg-82505575 
 MNTA     #msg-82284707  #msg-81767077  #msg-70212854   
 PFE      #msg-82548993  #msg-78031598  #msg-81127453 
 PKI      #msg-80928807  #msg-78211878  #msg-66945279   
  
 Natural Resources 
 CLF      #msg-78795127  #msg-80894013  #msg-82088941 
 HES      #msg-78327155  #msg-78327528  #msg-75235512  
 PCL      #msg-73427089  #msg-79236812  #msg-43004163  
 RDS-A/B  #msg-82241687  #msg-81095059  #msg-76110453  
 VALE     #msg-78795127  #msg-77035338  #msg-73341305 
    
 Agriculture and Food 
 DE       #msg-79014125  #msg-78435398  #msg-61382266  
 HNZ      #msg-72326802  #msg-60572753  #msg-51552987 
 MDLZ     #msg-80352710  #msg-80158764  #msg-81443247 
 MON      #msg-79237993  #msg-60259277  #msg-41324910  
      
 Technology 
 IBM      #msg-67607838  #msg-80633719  #msg-79005759 
 MMM      #msg-60356285  #msg-81071714  #msg-71865338 

Feedback welcome.