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bladerunner1717

08/15/12 12:29 AM

#147114 RE: jq1234 #147111

re: ARRY

I'm going to disagree with you a bit on this, jq. I don't think Squarer would be talking up 797 and spending a lot of time trying to dispel negative inferences from the trial, if he didn't believe that the drug had some partnership value, albeit limited. He could have easily just let the matter drop and just drop the drug from further development and further discussion. After all, most sophisticated investors weren't including 797 in their valuation models. But, he didn't go that route. He would look really bad, if all of a sudden from now on he just stopped mentioning the drug after the presentation that he gave today. So I'm betting that he's going to get a deal; not a great deal, because it will be a long and expensive slog for a BP to get this drug to commercialization. But anything that ARRY gets at this point for 797 is just gravy. And, as Peter said, there is a long shot chance that the drug might really turn into something big.

Can you shed any light on the diabetes drug with AMGN? Do you think it's promising?

No one's mentioned the asthma drug. Does it have any value?

Can you tell us anything about the drug that Genentech has taken into clinicals? (I realize that it's very early stage.)


Bladerunner
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mcbio

08/15/12 12:32 AM

#147115 RE: jq1234 #147111

I am not missing anything. The more they spent time talking up a drug like 797, the less interested I am. Talk isn't going to dispel doubt about this class of drug for chronic use. It sounded desperate to me.

I always appreciate and respect your opinions but we'll have to agree to disagree on these comments (do agree there will obviously need to be more LT data).

I'd like to see real data from 614, not what they claim.

We already have real data from 614's prior Phase 1 formulation (#msg-69525926 and #msg-69824793 ) and the new Phase 1b formulation that's expected to report out at ASH is significantly more potent than the prior version and gets 3X the exposure (item 5 of #msg-77460024 ).

They said 520 data was exciting before, but it wasn't.

I'll wait and see the combo data but I don't hold out much hope for 520 myself.